We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. I find that hard to believe. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. Nothing is free, Hawker said. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. A lot of people think things are. Ohio's Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. I hope.. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. 'I Should Start Voting'. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. I think thats what the world needed. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Your email address will not be published. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. He says Democratic Gov. And its never going to come back.. bellwether counties epoch times Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. What a Bellwether County Is Saying About 2020 Election - The Epoch Times bellwether counties epoch times Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Its just not that great, Paul said. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. I think it worked out without me.. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. This includes personalizing content and advertising. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine "Statistically Impossible" That 19 of 20 Bellweather Counties All Voted I dont watch TV. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Port Clinton, Ohio. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. bellwether - Political Dictionary The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. He didnt vote in 2016 either. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. He isnt so sure about Biden. Youre not getting anybody perfect. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were Peoples common sense level is cooked. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. And we just want that to continue. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. The counties that predict presidential election winners didn't this If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag.